| Insights from Earth system model initial-condition large ensembles and future prospects C Deser, F Lehner, KB Rodgers, T Ault, TL Delworth, PN DiNezio, A Fiore, ... Nature Climate Change 10 (4), 277-286, 2020 | 661 | 2020 |
| Cooling of US Midwest summer temperature extremes from cropland intensification ND Mueller, EE Butler, KA McKinnon, A Rhines, M Tingley, NM Holbrook, ... Nature Climate Change 6 (3), 317-322, 2016 | 284 | 2016 |
| The Northern Hemisphere extratropical atmospheric circulation response to ENSO: How well do we know it and how do we evaluate models accordingly? C Deser, IR Simpson, KA McKinnon, AS Phillips Journal of Climate 30 (13), 5059-5082, 2017 | 220 | 2017 |
| Long-lead predictions of eastern United States hot days from Pacific sea surface temperatures KA McKinnon, A Rhines, MP Tingley, P Huybers Nature Geoscience 9 (5), 389-394, 2016 | 128 | 2016 |
| Growing impact of wildfire on western US water supply AP Williams, B Livneh, KA McKinnon, WD Hansen, JS Mankin, BI Cook, ... Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 119 (10), e2114069119, 2022 | 106 | 2022 |
| The changing shape of Northern Hemisphere summer temperature distributions KA McKinnon, A Rhines, MP Tingley, P Huybers Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 121 (15), 8849-8868, 2016 | 106 | 2016 |
| Internal variability and regional climate trends in an observational large ensemble KA McKinnon, C Deser Journal of Climate 31 (17), 6783-6802, 2018 | 100 | 2018 |
| How well do we know ENSO’s climate impacts over North America, and how do we evaluate models accordingly? C Deser, IR Simpson, AS Phillips, KA McKinnon Journal of Climate 31 (13), 4991-5014, 2018 | 98 | 2018 |
| Modeled and observed multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic jet stream and its connection to sea surface temperatures IR Simpson, C Deser, KA McKinnon, EA Barnes Journal of Climate 31 (20), 8313-8338, 2018 | 81 | 2018 |
| The value of initial condition large ensembles to robust adaptation decision‐making JS Mankin, F Lehner, S Coats, KA McKinnon Earth's Future 8 (10), e2012EF001610, 2020 | 74 | 2020 |
| An “observational large ensemble” to compare observed and modeled temperature trend uncertainty due to internal variability KA McKinnon, A Poppick, E Dunn-Sigouin, C Deser Journal of Climate 30 (19), 7585-7598, 2017 | 74 | 2017 |
| Hot extremes have become drier in the United States Southwest KA McKinnon, A Poppick, IR Simpson Nature Climate Change 11 (7), 598-604, 2021 | 69 | 2021 |
| Decadal predictability of late winter precipitation in western Europe through an ocean–jet stream connection IR Simpson, SG Yeager, KA McKinnon, C Deser Nature Geoscience 12 (8), 613-619, 2019 | 62 | 2019 |
| The spatial structure of the annual cycle in surface temperature: Amplitude, phase, and Lagrangian history KA McKinnon, AR Stine, P Huybers Journal of Climate 26 (20), 7852-7862, 2013 | 61 | 2013 |
| How unexpected was the 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave? KA McKinnon, IR Simpson Geophysical Research Letters 49 (18), e2022GL100380, 2022 | 59 | 2022 |
| US daily temperatures: The meaning of extremes in the context of nonnormality P Huybers, KA McKinnon, A Rhines, M Tingley Journal of Climate 27 (19), 7368-7384, 2014 | 56 | 2014 |
| Seasonally resolved distributional trends of North American temperatures show contraction of winter variability A Rhines, KA McKinnon, MP Tingley, P Huybers Journal of Climate 30 (3), 1139-1157, 2017 | 54 | 2017 |
| Observed humidity trends in dry regions contradict climate models IR Simpson, KA McKinnon, D Kennedy, DM Lawrence, F Lehner, ... Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 121 (1), e2302480120, 2024 | 37 | 2024 |
| Emergent constraints on the large-scale atmospheric circulation and regional hydroclimate: Do they still work in CMIP6 and how much can they actually constrain the future? IR Simpson, KA McKinnon, FV Davenport, M Tingley, F Lehner, ... Journal of Climate 34 (15), 6355-6377, 2021 | 36 | 2021 |
| The inherent uncertainty of precipitation variability, trends, and extremes due to internal variability, with implications for Western US water resources KA McKinnon, C Deser Journal of Climate 34 (24), 9605-9622, 2021 | 27 | 2021 |
Isla SimpsonNational Center for Atmospheric ResearchVerified email at ucar.edu